Your verification ID is: guDlT7MCuIOFFHSbB3jPFN5QLaQ Big Computing: The Red Sox season is a case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr Hyde

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

The Red Sox season is a case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr Hyde

In the first 36 games of the season the Red Sox went 17-19 while scoring 4.22 and allowing 4.47 runs per game. In the following 35 games the Red Sox went 26-9 while scoring 6.54 and allowing 3.91 runs per game. A 50% increase in runs scored over the same time period is usual.

Even more strange is if you look at the first 35 games the Red Sox never scored more than nine runs in a game. In the following 36 games they have scored more than nine runs 8 times. If I plot the run total frequency of the first 35 games of the season versus the following 36 games you get two totally different distributions.

The Standard Deviation for the first 35 games was a relatively tight 2.72 while for the following 36 games the Standard Deviation has ballooned 4.31. I have never seen a so flat a distribution of runs as the Red Sox have had in the last 36 games. Most of the runs scored distributions I have seen look like Chi Squared distributions

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